Navigating Capital, Cycles, and Conviction in Web3

July 08, 2025
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Navigating Capital, Cycles, and Conviction in Web3
Featuring Jeremy Kadouch, Portfolio Manager at MNFund and Co-founder at Cask Capital
🎧Watch the full podcast episode here
In our first episode of Web3 Founders Podcast by ArenaVS, we sat down with Jeremy Kadouch, Portfolio Manager at MNFund and Co-founder at Cask Capital, to explore what it takes to navigate market cycles, capital allocation, and conviction-led decision-making in Web3. Over the course of a candid conversation with host Fehmi Fennia (CIO, ArenaVS), Jeremy unpacked how his fund operates in the Web3 landscape, what metrics actually matter when evaluating early-stage projects, and why flexibility beats rigid models in today’s market.

A Dynamic Approach to Liquid Fund Management

Jeremy emphasized that MNFund was built around the idea of being adaptable. Unlike traditional funds that lock into a single strategy, be it delta-neutral, long-only, or algorithmic, his team structured their portfolio with dynamic liquidity allocation at its core.
“Our conviction is in being able to shift. We’re not here to be passive participants.”
This fluid approach means that if market conditions shift, the fund can reallocate swiftly, such as reducing OTC exposure from 30% to 5% during downturns and increasing holdings in base assets or even tokenized gold to preserve capital.
Their philosophy is straightforward: stay liquid, stay informed, and don’t hesitate to act. This enables MNFund to pursue high-potential opportunities with flexible vesting structures while mitigating risk through controlled exposure.

Vetting Projects: Beyond Revenue and Hype

One of the most illuminating parts of the discussion was Jeremy’s breakdown of how his team assesses early-stage Web3 projects. While revenue generation is a useful signal, it isn’t the starting point.
“Revenue will come if your vision is clear and you know where you’re going. But too many founders are focused on generating revenue ASAP instead of building the right product.”
Instead, MNFund places greater weight on a founder’s clarity of vision, the problem their product aims to solve, and their ability to build genuine, differentiated solutions rather than copycats of successful models.
Their vetting process for OTC deals is just as rigorous. Each opportunity is evaluated based on a strict matrix: liquidity, discount terms, unlock schedules, and project fundamentals. If one investment has a six-month vesting, the next must offer shorter lockups to keep the overall portfolio agile.

AI in Web3 Trading: Useful, Not Ready

With the rise of AI across industries, many fund managers are experimenting with automated trading. Jeremy shared his thoughts on whether AI is ready to replace human instincts in fund management:
“As a trader, sometimes you just need your gut instinct, and you can’t mimic that in an AI yet.”
While acknowledging that AI tools will likely improve with time, he remains skeptical of full autonomy in trading. In his view, real-world market dynamics still require the ability to pivot, contextualize, and apply emotion-driven insight when it counts.
Interestingly, he cited experiments by other small funds where AI strategies were paper-traded against human decisions, and the humans still outperformed, for now.

Tokenization and Regulatory Reality

Given the increasing interest in tokenized funds and RWAs (real-world assets), Fehmi asked whether MNFund would ever consider tokenizing its operations. Jeremy was clear-eyed about the potential and the limitations.
“We’d like to tokenize, but realistically, in the Netherlands, that’s five years away.”
As a Dutch-registered fund, regulatory frameworks are still catching up to technological ambition. That hasn’t stopped MNFund from integrating tokenized assets like gold into their strategies, especially during volatile cycles, but full fund tokenization will require structural regulatory change.

Market Outlook: Selectivity Over Hype

Looking ahead, Jeremy offered a clear-eyed view of what the next few months might look like across Web3:
“BTC is already in a bull market. I think we’ll see altcoin rotations, but not a full alt season like before.”
Rather than expecting a euphoric, all-encompassing surge across every token, he anticipates more sector-based or narrative-led micro cycles, with capital flowing toward projects with solid fundamentals, strong teams, and real-world adoption.
He also believes this cycle will be more gradual, more selective, and ultimately healthier than past runs. Instead of casino-style speculation on memecoins or poorly structured projects, smart capital is shifting to sustainable ventures with long-term upside.

Ethereum Loyalty and Chain Conviction

On a lighter note, Fehmi closed the episode by asking Jeremy where he stands on the chain tribalism spectrum: Bitcoin Maxis, Ethereum diehards, or Solana supporters?
“I’m an ETH maxi. I haven’t held any Bitcoin since 2019.”
Jeremy reaffirmed his conviction in Ethereum as an ecosystem, especially with the recent Petra upgrade and the strength of its developer community. While newer chains like Sui are on his radar, he remains confident that Ethereum’s foundational role in DeFi and interoperability gives it staying power that others still lack.

Closing Thoughts

From capital structure to strategic conviction, this episode highlighted the necessity of staying nimble, analytical, and authentic in Web3. Jeremy Kadouch offered not just insight into MNFund’s model but also broader truths about how the best investors operate: by asking better questions, adapting early, and sticking to a long-term thesis.
“You don’t just pick project #57 off a list. You need to know why it matters, who’s behind it, and how it fits into the future we’re building.”
As the Web3 industry continues to mature, those who bring clarity, patience, and flexibility will be the ones still standing when the next cycle begins.
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